Canada: Barley production forecast to rebound to 9.43 mln tonnes

For 2021-22, barley used for feed was estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) at 4.29 million tonnes (Mt), a drop of 33% on the year and the lowest on record going back to 1982-83, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its September report.

The sharp decline in domestic feed use is mainly due to the 2021 Prairie drought which severely reduced barley output and led to a significant shortage in supply and therefore rationed demand downward.

Canada exported 2.60 Mt of barley, 39% and 16% lower than a year ago and the previous five-year average, respectively. Of the total exports, 1.90 Mt of barley grain was exported, with almost 85% going to China and the rest to the US (14%) and Japan (1%). Exports of grain equivalent of malt amounted to just over 0.70 Mt with nearly 60% going to the US, 20% to Mexico and 18% to Japan.

Carry-out stocks were pegged at just over 0.50 Mt, the tightest on record (29% lower than the old record seen the previous year) largely due to the lowest record of on-farm stocks.

The Lethbridge feed barley price for 2021-22 is finalized at a new high of C$432/tonne (t), up sharply from the old record of C$294/t set in 2020-21 and well above the previous five-year average.

For 2022-23, Canadian barley output is expected to rebound from last year’s drought-induced low, given the near-normal growing conditions this year. In its September 14th model-based yield and production report, STC estimated this year’s Canadian barley production at 9.43 Mt. The increase in production, offsetting the historically low carry-in stocks and smaller imports will drive the 2022-23 supply to grow by 27% year on year to nearly 10 Mt, which is 6% below the pre-2021 five-year average but close to the ten-year average.

The expanded supply will support domestic use, including industrial and feed use, and exports in 2022-23. Carry-out stocks are projected to rise from 2021-22 to 0.55 Mt, which is still a tight level.

The average price is predicted to decline from the record level in 2021-22 to C$370/t due to expectations for a recovery in domestic feed grain supply from last year’s drought. However, it will remain historically high, largely underpinned by strong corn prices.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, revised 2022-23 barley production forecasts upwards for Australia and Russia, while leaving them unchanged for other major barley exporting countries. Combined 2022-23 barley production in the world's major barley exporting regions and countries is 1.7 Mt higher than the August forecast, pushing it almost on par with the 2021-22 level and the previous five-year average. Production in Australia, EU and Ukraine is predicted to decrease by 1.7 Mt, 1.9 Mt and 3.5 Mt, respectively, from 2021-22, with those in Canada and Russia to increase by 2.9 Mt and 3.5 Mt, respectively, while Argentina remains unchanged.

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